Ben Kenney
June 23, 2024 7:40 am CT
The Big Ten landscape increases in difficulty at the start of the 2024 season.
New additions Oregon, Washington, UCLA and USC all bring formidable teams and long histories of success to the conference. Plus they join a new conference structure that sees the elimination of the East-West division model and the implementation of a pool play format.
Related: Phil Steele unveils 2024 Big Ten power rankings, season preview
For programs like Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota and Purdue, the landscape just got a lot more daunting. That, while programs including Penn State and Maryland are likely thrilled that the divisions are gone and that the dominance of Ohio State and Michigan is no longer confined to one small group.
Preseason power rankings highlight this new structure, but also do so while acknowledging the challenge of predicting a conference dynamic we are yet to see. USC, for example, may look great on paper, but it’s challenging to handicap how it will perform in a late-season road trip to Iowa.
The ESPN Football Power Index is one such preseason ranking tool. The metric compares every team’s strength to an average FBS team and compiles a full 1-134 ranking with that focus. It is a useful tool to preview the upcoming season, though it does still have its flaws.
Those flaws cause some teams to be overrated entering the season, and others to fly under the radar. With the rankings now released, here is a full analysis of ESPN FPI’s Big Ten power rankings with an “overrated,” “underrated,” or “accurate” verdict for every team:
18
Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti looks on during the Indiana football spring game at Memorial Stadium on Thursday, April 18, 2024. Credit: Bobby Goddin/Herald-Times-USA TODAY NETWORK
FPI Rating: -2.4 (No. 77 overall)
Projected 2024 Record: 5.3-6.7
Curt Cignetti is one of the more underrated head coaches in the country after excelling in a short time at James Madison. He brought in a 31-person transfer class this offseason that includes many of his best players at James Madison. It should have Indiana improve upon its 3-9 2023 season.
It should take time for Cignetti to turn the program around. But Indiana won’t be a pushover this season.
Verdict: Underrated
17
Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State’s head coach Jonathan Smith looks on during the Spring Showcase on Saturday, April 20, 2024, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. Credit: Nick King/Lansing State Journal-USA TODAY NETWORK
FPI Rating: -1.0 (No. 68 overall)
Projected 2024 Record: 4.8-7.2
Michigan State starts fresh under head coach Jonathan Smith. The 2024 team could be dangerous if talented quarterback Aidan Chiles lives up to his recruiting billing, but it’s hard seeing the Spartans immediately compete in year one.
The team will win some games. But it isn’t this fantastic Big Ten sleeper.
Verdict: Accurate
Get more (Michigan State) news, analysis and opinions onSpartans Wire
16
Illinois Fighting Illini
Oct 29, 2022; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema greets linebacker Tarique Barnes (8) on the sideline during the fourth quarter against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports
FPI Rating: 0.2 (No. 62 overall)
Projected 2024 Record: 5.3-6.7
Illinois was excellent in 2022 and understandably took a step back in 2023 after losing some top-end NFL talent. The 2024 team returns 62% of production from last season, including quarterback Luke Altmyer. It will be hurt by the elimination of the Big Ten West, but this ranking feels like an overreaction to last season’s struggles.
Verdict: Underrated
15
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Oct 21, 2023; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers head coach P.J. Fleck watches a replay against the Iowa Hawkeyes during the first quarter at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
FPI Rating: 0.4 (No. 61 overall)
Projected 2024 Record: 5.3-6.7
Minnesota struggled to a 5-7 regular season record in 2023. Either the program is crashing, or 2023 was an outlier in a P.J. Fleck tenure that has only included winning seasons (minus 2020).
The Gophers welcome in FCS All-American QB Max Brosmer to rejuvenate an offense that fell flat in 2023. I’d expect a big step forward, led by top WR Daniel Jackson, RB Darius Taylor and a fantastic offensive line. The schedule is brutal, but the team itself should be better than a No. 61 overall ranking.
Verdict: Underrated
14
Purdue Boilermakers
Nov 18, 2023; Evanston, Illinois, USA; Purdue Boilermakers head coach Ryan Walters watches his team play against the Northwestern Wildcats in the fourth quarter at Ryan Field. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports
FPI Rating: 0.5 (No. 60 overall)
Projected 2024 Record: 4.5-7.5
Purdue enters year two under Ryan Walters needing to find an identity. The team struggled on both sides of the football in his first season, which was a surprise given his history as a defensive coordinator. Another year of roster turnover should help his cause, but it’s hard to expect the Boilermakers to contend.
The team is overrated in any ranking that has it anywhere other than last or second-to-last in the conference. There’s no way Purdue is a better team than both Illinois and Minnesota, at least given the track records of the coaches at the helm.
Verdict: Overrated
13
Northwestern Wildcats
Nov 4, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Northwestern Wildcats head coach David Braun looks on during the first half against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
FPI Rating: 1.3 (No. 57 overall)
Projected 2024 Record: 5.5-6.5
This ranking feels like an overreaction to Northwestern’s outlier 8-5 2023 season. The Wildcats don’t utilize the transfer portal like every other team in the sport and will likely fall behind as a result.
Good seasons are still possible, and that’s what we saw last year. I’d doubt the team coming anywhere close to bowl eligibility in 2024.
Verdict: Overrated
12
Maryland Terrapins
Oct 28, 2023; Evanston, Illinois, USA; Maryland Terrapins head coach Mike Locksley (center) on the sidelines during the second half at Ryan Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
FPI Rating: 4.1 (No. 46 overall)
Projected 2024 Record: 6.6-5.4
This feels like a good spot for Maryland every season. The Terrapins can defeat the bottom half of the conference with ease, but then won’t stand a chance against any top contender.
One variable to watch: The quarterback situation after Taulia Tagovailoa’s departure is less than ideal. That could be the thing that sends Maryland further toward the bottom of the conference.
Verdict: Accurate
11
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Sep 3, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights head coach Greg Schiano before the game against the Northwestern Wildcats at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
FPI Rating: 4.1 (No. 45 overall)
Projected 2024 Record: 7.2-4.8
This is the year for Rutgers. Greg Schiano returns nearly his entire 2023 team that finished 7-6 and could’ve been even better.
The only area of concern is quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis (formerly of Minnesota). His play will dictate whether the Scarlet Knights can capitalize on an easy schedule.
Verdict: Accurate
Get more (Rutgers) news, analysis and opinions onRutgers Wire
10
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Nov 11, 2023; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Matt Rhule during the third quarter against the Maryland Terrapins at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports
FPI Rating: 4.8 (No. 41 overall)
Projected 2024 Record: 6.5-5.5
Nebraska is perennially overrated. But that feels like a thing of the past with Matt Rhule now at the helm.
The Cornhuskers return most of what was a fantastic defense in 2023 and have a reworked offense now led by five-star freshman Dylan Raiola. The schedule is easy and Rhule has a history of big steps forward in his second year. So look out for Nebraska this season.
Verdict: Underrated
Get more (Nebraska) news, analysis and opinions onCornhuskers Wire
9
UCLA Bruins
Feb 13, 2024; Los Angeles, CA, USA; UCLA Bruins athletic director Martin Jarmond, right, with new head football coach DeShaun Foster during a press conference at Pauley Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
FPI Rating: 4.9 (No. 40 overall)
Projected 2024 Record: 5.5-6.5
This ranking is based completely on UCLA’s 8-5 finish to last season. The program looks completely different with Chip Kelly gone to Ohio State and former running backs coach DeShaun Foster now at the helm.
I’d pick UCLA to finish toward the bottom of the conference next to Michigan State and Purdue. That is way off from what ESPN FPI sees.
Verdict: Overrated
Get more (UCLA) news, analysis and opinions onUCLA Wire
8
Wisconsin Badgers
Oct 14, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell leads the football team onto the field for warmups prior to the game against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
FPI Rating: 5.0 (No. 39 overall)
Projected Record: 5.8-6.2
This feels right for Wisconsin. The Badgers should be improved in 2024 after a 7-6 finish in 2023. But there are still outstanding questions about Phil Longo’s offense working at a place like Wisconsin and in a defense-first conference.
The Badgers could be substantially better on both sides of the football and still fall victim to a brutal schedule. So it’s hard to call them a contender for a playoff spot this season. But there’s also a little-to-zero chance the program falls in the other direction.
Verdict: Accurate
7
Iowa Hawkeyes
Oct 14, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Kirk Ferentz looks on during warmups prior to the game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
FPI Rating: 5.6 (No. 37 overall)
Projected 2024 Record: 7.0-5.0
Iowa will win 9-10 games every season regardless of whether it has an offense. But if new OC Tim Lester’s unit improves, look out for the Hawkeyes.
This is a program defined by stability and I’d expect that to continue, even in the new conference landscape.
Verdict: Accurate
Get more (Iowa) news, analysis and opinions on Hawkeyes Wire
6
Washington Huskies
Dec 1, 2023; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Washington Huskies mascot Harry the Husky and cheerleaders pose after the Pac-12 Championship game against the Oregon Ducks at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
FPI Rating: 6.7 (No. 31 overall)
Projected 2024 Record: 6.4-5.6
Washington went 14-1 and lost in the national championship game last season. But the 2024 Huskies are night and day different. The program is now led by former Arizona head coach Jedd Fisch and returns only 36% of its production from last season.
Any expectations of a repeat performance are way off. The Huskies are a middle-of-the-pack team in 2024.
Verdict: Overrated
Get more (Washington) news, analysis and opinions on Huskies Wire
5
USC Trojans
Oct 28, 2023; Berkeley, California, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts after a penalty during the third quarter against the California Golden Bears at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamash*ta-USA TODAY Sports
FPI Rating: 11.1 (No. 18 overall)
Projected 2024 Record: 7.1-5.1
I’m not a believer in USC suddenly figuring everything out upon entering the Big Ten. Lincoln Riley’s program has lived toward the bottom of every defensive metric for years. Although he finally fired Alex Grinch (who is now on the Wisconsin staff), there’s little chance it all clicks in 2024.
I’d pick USC to struggle in its first season in the new conference.
Verdict: Overrated
Get more (USC) news, analysis and opinions on Trojans Wire
4
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore watches a play during the second half of the spring game at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, April 20, 2024. Credit: Junfu Han-USA TODAY NETWORK
FPI Rating: 14.9 (No. 12 overall)
Projected 2024 Record: 8.3-3.9
Michigan’s program does look a lot different than the day after it won the national championship in January. But I’d bet on its stability and long history of contention. That, and Sherrone Moore’s roster is still littered with top-end NFL talent.
Verdict: Accurate
Get more (Michigan) news, analysis and opinions on Wolverines Wire
3
Penn State Nittany Lions
Dec 30, 2023; Atlanta, GA, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin on the sidelines against the Mississippi Rebels during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
FPI Rating: 19.8 (No. 6 overall)
Projected 2024 Record: 10.1-2.3
Here we go again: this might be the year that Penn State finally slays Michigan and Ohio State en route to contending for a Big Ten title. I’d argue the team is properly rated as No. 3 in the conference, but I’d move it close to No. 4 or No. 5 in the nation — ahead of the Alabama program now in the post-Nick Saban era.
I’m a big buyer into Penn State again this season. Though I must admit it rarely ends well.
Verdict: Accurate
Get more (Penn State) news, analysis and opinions on Nittany Lions Wire
2
Ohio State Buckeyes
Dec 29, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day walks off the field after losing 14-3 to Missouri Tigers in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic at AT&T Stadium. Credit: Kyle Robertson/Columbus Dispatch-USA TODAY NETWORK
FPI Rating: 22.2 (No. 4 overall)
Projected 2024 Record: 10.2-2.2
Ohio State is the second-most-talented team in the nation behind Georgia and should be one of the national title favorites. It is somehow flying under the radar, mostly thanks to what Michigan accomplished over the last three seasons.
The only question is Kansas State transfer QB Will Howard. If he excels, this team can win the national title.
Verdict: Underrated
Get more (Ohio State) news, analysis and opinions on Buckeyes Wire
1
Oregon Ducks
Sep 30, 2023; Stanford, California, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning walks on the field before the game against the Stanford Cardinal at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamash*ta-USA TODAY Sports
FPI Rating: 24.5 (No. 2 overall)
Projected 2024 Record: 10.8-1.8
Oregon should be a national title contender in 2024. Former Oklahoma transfer QB Dillon Gabriel is the one piece that separates it from Ohio State.
The dynamic between the Ducks and Buckeyes will be fascinating to watch play out when the season kicks off. Each are as title-ready as a team can be.
Verdict: Accurate
Get more (Oregon) news, analysis and opinions on Ducks Wire
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