Dak Prescott, Tee Higgins and 10 NFL contract situations that could define the 2024 season and beyond (2024)

Nov 23, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) and quarterback Dak Prescott (4) talk during the game against the Washington Commanders at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Franchise quarterbacks rarely make it to free agency — the most notable non-Tom Brady example from the last decade is Kirk Cousins, who did it twice. And like Cousins, the Cowboys could keep their homegrown, Day 3 draft pick QB around via the franchise tag the next two seasons if the two sides cannot hammer out a long term deal.

The upside to Dallas’ comatose 2024 offseason is it sets the team up to splurge in 2025. Over The Cap estimates more than $65 million in spending room next winter even before getting to potential cuts and restructures that could push that salary cap space toward the $100 million threshold. The downside is Prescott isn’t the only star who’ll need to be considered. CeeDee Lamb will be a free agent next spring. Zach Martin is hitting the void years of his contract. Micah Parsons is in line for an extension of his own.

Prescott finished 2023 as runner up in MVP voting and was a second-team All-Pro. He led the NFL in touchdown passes and his 1.5 percent interception rate was the lowest of his career outside of his dynamite rookie debut. Someone is going to give him more than $60 million annually. The question is when, and if Jerry Jones is truly willing to get weird with things, who?

Nov 12, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) makes a touchdown catch past New York Giants safety Bobby McCain (21) during the second half at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Lamb has gotten better every season as a pro, leading the NFL in receptions (135) last fall while earning first-team All-Pro honors. Prescott’s passer rating when targeting him was a stellar 124.3. It dropped to 97.7 when he dialed up any other Cowboy.

An extension for a 25-year-old wideout will be expensive. Lamb is in position to best the four-year, $120,010,000 deal Amon-Ra St. Brown signed with the Detroit Lions this offseason (the extra $10,000 was to push him ahead of Tyreek Hill atop the all-time total value leaderboard) and the $32 million annual salary AJ Brown got in a three-year deal with the Philadelphia Eagles. Like Prescott, he’s in line for a market-resetting deal that chomps away at the cap space Dallas has accrued for 2025 and beyond.

But Lamb may be waiting on the market to develop so his place as the NFL’s top paid wideout could last more than a couple weeks. That’s because there’s another game-changing receiver in line to sign a nine-figure contract this offseason…

ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – NOVEMBER 13: Justin Jefferson #18 of the Minnesota Vikings catches a pass in front of Cam Lewis #39 of the Buffalo Bills during the fourth quarter at Highmark Stadium on November 13, 2022 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Isaiah Vazquez/Getty Images) ORG XMIT: 775825721 ORIG FILE ID: 1441253779

Jefferson has, in his career to date, averaged 20 more receiving yards per game than Lamb. He’ll be the crutch on which Minnesota relies as it phases out of the Kirk Cousins era and into the JJ McCarthy one. Even though he missed seven games last fall, he still managed to produce his fourth 1,000-yard season in four years as a pro.

More importantly, he’s posted a success rate — a metric that measures whether a play gained at least 50 percent of yards required to move the chains on first down, 70 percent of yards needed on second down and 100 percent on third or fourth down — of better than 60 percent in half his seasons as a pro. That makes him a third down cheat code, whether tossing it his way in search of clutch yardage or using him to set up manageable situations for a young quarterback on big downs.

That will make him an expensive necessity for the Vikings. Would they pony up $140 million over four years to keep him? That would reset the wide receiver market by a significant margin, but few players in league history have been as prolific this early in their careers.

Nov 5, 2023; Frankfurt, Germany; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) throws the ball under pressure from Kansas City Chiefs defensive end George Karlaftis (56) in the second half during an NFL International Series game at Deutsche Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Tagovailoa spent last offseason learning jiu jitsu and adding muscle in order to withstand the rigors of NFL pass rushes and prove he could dispel the injury concerns that have plagued his career. This led to his first 17-game season and a league-best 4,624 passing yards. Now he’s losing some of that weight in order to maximize his mobility and add a new arrow to his quiver.

The Dolphins could opt to lock him in to a deal that recognizes him as the team’s future. Or they could look at his 32-19 regular season record, compare it to the fact it’s led to zero playoff wins and decide to hold steady knowing the team can franchise tag him in 2025 and work out an extension then. Head coach Mike McDaniel has been a massive advocate for his lefty quarterback throughout his tenure. If he pushes hard, Tagovailoa could be due for a massive raise — albeit one that may lack the guarantees of similar quarterbacks thanks to his injury history.

Dec 25, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (11) rushes for the first down against Baltimore Ravens safety Geno Stone (26) during the fourth quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports

Aiyuk isn’t content to play out the final season of his rookie contract. He’s already requested a trade in an effort to jump-start extension talks, whether that’s with the 49ers or someone else.

It would be difficult for San Francisco to watch its biggest field-stretching threat leave. Aiyuk emerged as the team’s top downfield option, a chuck-it-deep wizard with a different, defense-confounding style compared to the rest of the team’s toss-short-run-long savants. His 70.3 percent success rate was tops among any player with more than 45 targets and endemic to Brock Purdy’s rise from “useful starter” to “MVP candidate.”

But the Niners are already loaded with expensive stars and Purdy’s dirt cheap rookie deal can only create space for so many of them. San Francisco already has 10 players slated to cost at least $10 million against the salary cap in 2025 and is a projected $38 million over next year’s estimated spending limit, per Over The Cap. By drafting Ricky Pearsall and extending Jauan Jennings, the 49ers are braced to lose an impact receiver. Could it be Aiyuk?

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins (5) catches a touchdown as Baltimore Ravens safety Ar’Darius Washington (29) defends in the third quarter of a Week 2 NFL football game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals Sunday, Sept. 17, 2023, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati.

Like Aiyuk, Higgins has one year remaining under contract and has requested a trade. But unlike Aiyuk, Higgins has already played out his rookie deal and been franchise tagged by the Bengals in hopes of keeping the band together at least one more year.

Cincinnati could ship him off for a first round pick and hope Ja’Marr Chase can pick up the slack, but losing the 6-foot-4 game-changer would be a blow to an offense tasked with replacing offensive coordinator Brian Callahan. Higgins thrives downfield in the space Chase creates underneath and vice versa. He’s been Joe Burrow’s top downfield target, leading the team in average catch distance each of the last three seasons.

Higgins lacks the pure statistical impact of the other wideouts on this list, but he’s been vital to the Bengals’ breakthrough. He does everything well, whether that’s shaking cornerbacks at the line, hauling in catches through contact or stretching the field so others can shine. He may not get Justin Jefferson money, but any team in need of a big, established young wideout could use him — giving Cincinnati something to think about if his asking price is too steep.

Nov 12, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) tosses the ball before playing the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports

Love signed a modest extension last season, effectively wiping out the fifth year team option on his rookie contract in order to pay him more money up front in 2023. He went out and exceeded expectations, making the $11 million he’s slated to make in 2024 — $1 million more than Sam by-god Darnold — an extreme bargain.

That hasn’t led to a hold out, though Love isn’t completely ruling one out. Rather than risk squandering the momentum that closed out last season on a 7-3 run, Green Bay is likely to ink the latest link in its chain of franchise quarterbacks to a massive extension.

But how much will a player with only a single year of starting experience command? Love thrived in Matt LaFleur’s scheme and found open targets with consistency. He also had stretches where he made easy throws look difficult and difficult ones look easy. His 17.5 percent bad throw rate was sixth worst in the NFL last season, sandwiched between Kenny Pickett and Aidan O’Connell on the leaderboard. His 0.163 adjusted expected points added (EPA) were sixth best.

The Packers have money to spend in 2025 and beyond. Love isn’t going anywhere. But how much he’s worth after a small sample size of NFL performances is the debate that will consume Wisconsin until, and after, a deal is struck.

Oct 28, 2018; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackle Cameron Heyward (97) in action during the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cleveland Browns at Heinz Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Heyward has been the tone-setter in the middle of the Steelers’ line for more than a decade. He’s also 35 years old and a free agent next spring, leaving him to hold out of organized team activities this spring in search of one last big money contract.

Pittsburgh may be hesitant to pull the trigger on any guarantees beyond 2024. Heyward was a monster in his early 30s, racking up 20.5 sacks from his spot at tackle in 2021 and 2022 — his most ever in a two-year stretch. But injuries limited him to only 11 games last season and his presence as a pass rusher was greatly diminished. His three quarterback hits in 2023 were a career low.

Even so, Heyward is a locker room leader and local icon. The logical conclusion would be a two-year deal that bumps his 2024 cash up slightly (currently slated at $16 million) while carving room for an exit strategy in 2025 if he can’t reclaim his early 2020s form. Maybe two years, $30 million with $20 million guaranteed?

Nov 26, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) attempts a pass as Houston Texans linebacker Blake Cashman (53) during the third quarter at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Lawrence and Brock Purdy would be the crown jewels of the 2026 free agent class if they were to get there. But Purdy is only two years into his NFL career, making him ineligible for an extension until next winter (and even then, the 49ers have plenty of stars that need to be paid in the interim). Lawrence, on the other hand, just wrapped his third season as a pro and is already tied for second place in franchise history when it comes to most seasons quarterbacked with a winning record (with… two).

The former first overall pick remains more potential than production, having backslid in 2023 against the backdrop of injuries. He was an average quarterback for a roughly .500 team that year, but in 2022 he was a top 10 passer who engineered one of the biggest comebacks in playoff history to embarrass the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card round.

A healthy Lawrence can climb back to those modest heights and exceed them. And given the cost of hope in Jacksonville, even a massive deal will seem cheap in comparison for the Jaguars.

CLEVELAND, OHIO – SEPTEMBER 22: Amari Cooper #2 of the Cleveland Browns makes a catch during the fourth quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers at FirstEnergy Stadium on September 22, 2022 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) ORG XMIT: 775825759 ORIG FILE ID: 1426421016

Cooper has been exceptional at the top of a shaky wideout corps in Cleveland, totalling more than 2,400 yards and 14 touchdowns in two seasons as a Brown. Those numbers are even more impressive when you consider who’s been throwing him the ball: Jacoby Brissett, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, PJ Walker, Joe Flacco, Jeff Driskel and Deshaun Watson (the NFL’s 35th-best quarterback since 2022, signed to a $230 million, fully guaranteed contract despite more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the league itself later described as “predatory behavior”).

Cooper’s importance to the passing game cannot be overstated. He had nearly double the receiving yards of the next closest wideout on the Browns roster last season (1,250 to Elijah Moore’s 640). He’ll also turn 30 years old in June, which generally signals the end of a receiver’s salad days.

Cooper’s thick frame and body control should help ease him into any age-related decline, and his varied route tree — 2023 saw his average target distance rise to a career-high 14.3 yards downfield — will help as well. But the Browns are an estimated $42 million over next year’s salary cap (see Watson above) and have limited financial flexibility in the immediate future. How much are they willing to spend on a wideout in his 30s?