Penn State football stats: Key numbers to improve for 2021 (2024)

As much as Penn State wants and needs to turn the page on last season, it can’t simply ignore or dismiss some of the team’s shortcomings.

Diving into postseason analysis is part of the job for the coaching staff, and despite a nine-game sample size and all of the oddities of 2020 — and already a new offensive coordinator coming to town in 2021 — some statistics help tell the story of last season and provide a window into what needs to be better next season.

Penn State’s average of 29.8 points per game was its lowest output since 2015, when it averaged 23.2. The offense’s average of 5.46 yards per play was almost equal to the 2015 average (5.47). Offensive coordinator John Donovan was fired after 2015, and Kirk Ciarrocca was fired after 2020.

The rebound from 2015 to 2016 with Joe Moorhead was swift and changed the trajectory of James Franklin’s Penn State tenure. Now, with Mike Yurcich taking over the offense and Penn State again at a critical juncture after a 4-5 season, here are six notable stats from the 2020 season that could play a role in 2021:

Turnover margin

Perhaps no statistic tells the tale of the season better than this one. Penn State finished at minus-8 one season after being plus-8. That’s a huge swing. Since 2009, the Nittany Lions have finished with a negative turnover margin just four times. Though much can be made of quarterback Sean Clifford’s turnovers (he threw nine interceptions and lost three fumbles), the defense wasn’t as opportunistic as it was expected to be, either.

The defense recorded just four interceptions, with Jaquan Brisker, Lamont Wade, Brandon Smith and Keaton Ellis each chipping in one. This has been a reoccurring issue with Penn State after it tied for eighth in the Big Ten in 2019 with 10 interceptions, tied for sixth in 2018 (13) and tied for seventh in 2017 (10).

Only three defenses in the Big Ten — Purdue, Maryland and Michigan — had fewer interceptions than Penn State in 2020. Keep in mind Penn State played three more games than Purdue and Michigan and four more games than Maryland. With super senior cornerback Tariq Castro-Fields and super senior safety Brisker both returning, there will not be as much turnover in the secondary as expected. Penn State still needs Brisker to be the ball hawk coaches continue to hope he’ll become. Toward the end of last season, Brisker was playing his best football, but even then there were near-interceptions he didn’t come up with.

Gauging success up front

Penn State allowed 28 sacks, ranking second-to-last in the Big Ten with an average of 3.1 sacks allowed per game. Penn State averaged 2.26 sacks allowed per game in 2019 and last surrendered three sacks per game in 2015. In the running game, Penn State averaged 1.63 yards before contact, according to Sports Info Solutions, ranking 80th in the FBS — slightly down from 1.82 (71st) in 2019.

The line improved down the stretch, and so did the run game. As always, not all sacks can be directly attributed to line, but this is clearly one area for growth. This line should look different in 2021. With senior center Michal Menet and senior guard/tackle Will Fries moving on and right guard C.J. Thorpe working on a transfer, there likely will be available starting spots at left guard (assuming starting Mike Miranda moves to center) and right guard (Fries ended the year there, and Juice Scruggs should be a top candidate).

When evaluating the offensive line, it’s easy to point to sacks and pressures, but the other aspect — one that Franklin mentioned especially early on in the season — was trying to get a young running back corps up to speed. Franklin wanted to see more broken tackles from them, and statistics indicate that’s an area with room for growth too.

Penn State finished the season ranked 90th in the FBS in average yards after contact by running backs at 2.5 per attempt, according to Sports Info Solutions. Keyvone Lee’s average of 2.7 yards after contact was the best of the group. That’s notable, considering Journey Brown averaged 4.4 yards in 2019. Miles Sanders was at 3.5 in 2018 and Saquon Barkley was at 3.3 in 2017 and 3.5 in 2016.

Fading away in the red zone

Penn State made it to the red zone 37 times and left with points 28 times (75.68 percent). That’s a significant drop from the 90 percent conversion rate in 2019. Criticism of play-calling, including end zone fades, is warranted. When the windows shrink and plays are more difficult to make, good offenses find ways to thrive. The Nittany Lions scored touchdowns on just 51.35 percent of red zone trips, ranking 12th in the Big Ten.

Making matters worse, the team’s 61.1 percent field goal conversion rate (11-of-18) — its lowest field goal conversion percentage since 2017 — added to the issues.

Penn State hadn’t had a season conversion rate in the red zone lower than 80 percent since 2012. If turnovers were the biggest problem in 2020, performance in the red zone isn’t far behind.

Clifford and deep shots

In the past two-plus seasons, one of the criticisms of the offense has been the lack of successful shot plays. Jahan Dotson and Parker Washington made some big plays, but it will be up to Yurcich to retool this offense and make it more consistently explosive again.

According to Sports Info Solutions, in 2019 23.5 percent of Clifford’s pass attempts were thrown 15-plus yards downfield, with an on-target rate of 40.5 percent. It resulted in 10 touchdowns and six interceptions. In 2020, 16.3 percent of Clifford’s pass attempts were thrown 15-plus yards downfield, with an on-target rate of 43.9 percent. This resulted in six touchdowns and three interceptions.

So, his downfield accuracy was slightly better, but Penn State didn’t take as many shots. The reworking of this offense will be the storyline of the offseason as Yurcich works to get Clifford and the quarterbacks back on track.

Where will the pressure come from?

With seniors Shaka Toney and Shane Simmons gone and Jayson Oweh leaving early, the pass rush will be a focal point all offseason. Temple graduate transfer Arnold Ebiketie will push for a starting spot, while Adisa Isaac figures to be the favorite for the other job.

In 2019, Penn State pressured 41 percent of opposing dropbacks, according to Sports Info Solutions. That figure dropped to 37 percent last year. Brent Pry said the defense changed how it approached scrambling quarterbacks. Though sacks aren’t always the most indicative stat, Penn State can do a better job here.

Oweh didn’t have a sack last season, which is mind-bending, considering the amount of pressure he generated. Against Indiana, he was credited with 13 pressures by Sports Info Solutions. He finished the season with 24 pressures in seven games.

“What I like to see a few more quarterbacks on the ground? Yeah, I would,” Pry said last month. “But there’s not a lot of snaps where I can look at and say, ‘We’re not good enough right here. We’re not good enough right here. We’re not good enough right here.’ It hasn’t really been that situation.”

The tackling

The lunging, angles and whiffs didn’t sit well with Penn State fans — and certainly not with Pry either. Matt Millen criticized the tackling during a broadcast and Pry called it “shoddy.”

“It was a mixed bag of issues,” Pry said. “… I don’t think we were very good at it to start the year and I look across college football, I don’t think anybody’s good at it if you want to know the truth. And I think that you practice it the best you can, you know, you got 1,000 reps of tag-off and thud where you got to get these guys to get in position and feel like they’re making the tackle.”

Penn State’s run defense finished with a missed/broken tackle rate of 11.19 percent, according to Sports Info Solutions, which ranked sixth in the Big Ten. In 2019, that figure was 9 percent, which was second in the conference.

How do they improve here when teams hit less and less in practice because of injury concerns? A more normal offseason could help, for one. But the linebackers in particular were the group that Pry was most critical of, and with all three starters expected back, that group should improve.

“We’ve tackled well in the box we just haven’t tackled well in space at my spot,” Pry said. “Not well enough.”

— Statistical data provided by Sports Info Solutions

(Photo of James Franklin and Sean Clifford: Matthew O’Haren / USA Today)

Audrey Snyder has covered Penn State since 2012 for various outlets, including The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, The Patriot-News and DKPittsburghSports. Snyder is an active member of the Association for Women in Sports Media (AWSM) and is the professional adviser for Penn State’s student chapter. Follow Audrey on Twitter @audsnyder4