Snyder: There's no overstating what's at stake for Penn State against Michigan (2024)

STATE COLLEGE, Pa. — As the sun set Wednesday with Penn State on the practice field, all the tell-tale signs of Saturday’s importance came into focus.

Fox’s “Big Noon Saturday” stage was already being erected across the street from Beaver Stadium. In front of the stadium’s student section entrance, the November chill was met by several Nittanyville campers whose tents were already in place. They’re doing so to ensure they can secure the best seats possible for the showdown between No. 3 Michigan and No. 10 Penn State.

Next will come the RVs, the weekend revelers and surely quite a few folks decked out in maize and blue, too. High-stakes November football in the Big Ten is upon us, and a game that’s been circled all offseason is here.

Yet again, we find Penn State facing a familiar situation.

The Nittany Lions are 8-1 with a loss to Ohio State. They have a golden opportunity to save their season-long goals, should they pull off the win against Michigan. Or they’ll face another offseason of questions about what to make of a season in which they didn’t beat Ohio State or Michigan, teams Penn State is a combined 4-15 against since James Franklin arrived in 2014. The Nittany Lions haven’t beaten either Big Ten East power since a win against Michigan during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.

This town, this fan base and even those elsewhere rooting against Michigan — many likely fed up with the Wolverines as Michigan awaits potential punishment from the scouting and sign-stealing scandal — will come unglued with a Penn State win. The pent-up frustrations from big-game shortcomings amid a relatively successful period otherwise will lead to pandemonium.

Players know how big Saturday is, even if Franklin said time and time again it’s about sticking to the process that’s gotten the program this far.

“A lot of people around the country believe that Penn State is unable to take the next step,” cornerback Kalen King said. “I feel like this game is the perfect opportunity for us to go out and prove ourselves against a powerhouse team like Michigan.”

There’s also the mountain of evidence that points to Penn State all too often flatlining in marquee matchups.

Penn State is 3-16 against AP top-10 opponents under Franklin, including 2-7 when ranked in the top 10 itself. Those aren’t the kinds of facts that inspire confidence for Saturday. Even since the surprise 2016 Big Ten title season, Penn State is a modest 13-18 against AP-ranked teams.

Last I checked, no team hangs banners for keeping games close or for consistently covering the spread. Yes, Penn State has put up respectable showings in many of the star-studded showdowns, but it has also yet to break through and reach an elite level on a consistent basis.

That’s not to say Penn State hasn’t achieved a lot of success during Franklin’s tenure. It has four seasons with at least 10 wins and appearances in four New Year’s Six bowl games. Another double-digit win total and New Year’s Six bid is feasible again regardless of what happens Saturday. But true signature moments — the enthralling field-stormings and dramatic scenes after upending an elite foe — have been few and far between.

Go back further, and Penn State has just six top-10 wins in the 21st century. That’s the same number as Purdue, Iowa State and Pitt. Ohio State has 33. Penn State is also 1-6 against top-10 Michigan teams — losing each of the past six matchups, with four by at least 24 points, after winning in 1994.

Before Penn State stepped off the field in Columbus last month, many fans had already hit their boiling point. It was looking like this would be more of the same in a season that was expected to be better than the past few. Fans are longing to celebrate wins against marquee opponents again, as the flood of people on the Beaver Stadium field and in the streets downtown after upsetting No. 2 Ohio State in 2016 is starting to feel like a distant memory.

This heap of statistics before and during Franklin’s tenure is why a win against Michigan would be monumental. Whether or not Penn State can generate enough offense and ride an elite defense past a Michigan team that may be even more complete and talented than its back-to-back Big Ten title winners is the question that will hang over Happy Valley until kickoff.

Given the amount of chaos a Penn State victory could cause in the College Football Playoff race and the convoluted Big Ten division tiebreaker scenarios that would come into play, Penn State can go from potentially missing out on a New Year’s Six bowl bid if it loses to having a shot at playing in the conference title game and punching a ticket to the program’s first CFP if it wins.

For those sleeping outside the stadium this week to those tuning in around the globe on Saturday, so much hangs in the balance. Saturday offers Penn State the possibility that this season could still be different and become special.

(Top photo: Michael Hickey / Getty Images)

Audrey Snyder has covered Penn State since 2012 for various outlets, including The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, The Patriot-News and DKPittsburghSports. Snyder is an active member of the Association for Women in Sports Media (AWSM) and is the professional adviser for Penn State’s student chapter. Follow Audrey on Twitter @audsnyder4