By Scott Dochterman and Stewart Mandel
Aug 27, 2024
Get ready for a new era in college football filled with more season-long intrigue than ever before. It will culminate with just as many arguments this December as it did in 1966, 1997 and 2016.
In our first attempt at selecting a 12-team College Football Playoff field, it’s obvious teams will politick against one another — even those in the same league. Michigan, Penn State and Iowa project to end the season 9-3, but none play each other. How do their seasons match up alongside one another? How do they compare against Kansas State (10-2), Virginia Tech (10-2) or LSU (9-3), and who earns the final CFP slot? For starters, a projected Kansas State loss in the Big 12 title game sends the Wildcats to 10-3, which allows the Wolverines to sneak in.
We also projected the other 34 bowls, which has become murky with the Pac-12’s dissolution. Take a look at our preseason CFP and bowl matchups, which were determined in part by Stewart Mandel’s ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC previews.
GO DEEPEROur experts' College Football Playoff, Heisman and national title predictionsCFP particulars
As before, a committee will choose the CFP participants. Beginning Nov. 5 (yes, election night), the committee releases its rankings every week. The committee unveils the CFP field and final top 25 on Sunday, Dec. 8.
The CFP field consists of the highest-ranked five conference champions and seven at-large teams. The top four conference champions receive a first-round bye. The lowest-ranked conference champion and the seven at-large teams will compete on campus on Dec. 20-21. Seeds 5-8 host seeds 9-12.
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We project Notre Dame to finish 11-1, with a better record than ACC champion Miami or Big 12 champion Utah, but because the Irish can’t win a conference championship, the fourth-seeded ’Canes get a bye and the fifth-seeded Irish do not.
For the teams earning byes, the committee will slot them in order of a bowl with priority given to historic conference affiliation. In our projections, the Sugar Bowl hosts SEC champion Georgia, just as before. Same with Big Ten champion Ohio State in the Rose Bowl.
The Orange and Cotton Bowls host the CFP semifinals on Jan. 9 and 10, respectively.
College Football Playoff
| Bowl/Playoff | Date | Location | Team | Team | Time (ET) | Network |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Playoff | Dec. 20 | Austin, Texas | 7. Texas (at-large) | 10. Tennessee (at-large) | 8 p.m. | ABC/ESPN |
Playoff | Dec. 21 | South Bend, Ind. | 5. Notre Dame (at-large) | 12. Memphis (G5) | Noon | TNT |
Playoff | Dec. 21 | Eugene, Ore. | 8. Oregon (at-large) | 9. Ole Miss (at-large) | 4 p.m. | TNT |
Playoff | Dec. 21 | Tuscaloosa, Ala. | 6. Alabama (at-large) | 11. Michigan (at-large) | 8 p.m. | ABC/ESPN |
Fiesta | Dec. 31 | Glendale, Ariz. | 3. Utah (Big 12) | Alabama-Michigan winner | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN |
Peach | Jan. 1 | Atlanta | 4. Miami (ACC) | ND-Memphis winner | Noon | ESPN |
Rose | Jan. 1 | Pasadena, Calif. | 1. Ohio State (Big Ten) | Oregon-Ole Miss winner | 5 p.m. | ESPN |
Sugar | Jan. 1 | New Orleans | 2. Georgia (SEC) | Texas-Tennessee winner | 8:45 p.m. | ESPN |
Orange | Jan. 9 | Miami, Fla. | Quarterfinal winner | Quarterfinal winner | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN |
Cotton | Jan. 10 | Arlington, Texas | Quarterfinal winner | Quarterfinal winner | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN |
Championship | Jan. 20 | Atlanta | Semifinal winner | Semifinal winner | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN |
Other bowls
When it comes to bowl games outside the CFP, realignment made the slotting process more complicated. The power conferences have contracts with non-CFP bowls that expire after the 2025 season.
For the next two years, the Pac-12’s previous bowls will choose from the league’s current (Oregon State and Washington State) and former members. Those bowls include the Alamo, Vegas, Holiday, Sun, LA Bowl and Independence. Despite playing in the Big Ten now, 7-5 USC lands in the Pac-12-affiliated Sun Bowl in our projections.
Once again, Academic Progress Rate (APR) data will determine which, if any, 5-7 teams will qualify for a bowl game. In our lineup, those consist of Minnesota and Stanford.
Remaining bowls
| Bowl | Date | Location | Team | Team | Time (ET) | Network |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bahamas | Jan. 4 | Nassau, Bahamas | NIU (MAC) | Jacksonville State (CUSA) | 11 a.m. | ESPN2 |
Duke's Mayo | Jan. 3 | Charlotte, N.C. | Penn State (Big Ten 4) | NC State (ACC 5-7) | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN |
First Responder | Jan. 3 | University Park, Texas | Texas Tech (ESPN) | UTSA (ESPN) | 4 p.m. | ESPN |
Gator | Jan. 2 | Jacksonville, Fla. | Virginia Tech (ACC 2-4) | LSU (SEC 3-8) | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN |
Texas | Dec. 31 | Houston | Iowa State (Big 12 4) | Oklahoma (SEC 3-8) | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN |
Citrus | Dec. 31 | Orlando, Fla. | Nebraska (Big Ten 2) | Texas A&M (SEC 2) | 3 p.m. | ABC |
Sun | Dec. 31 | El Paso, Texas | North Carolina (ACC 5-7) | USC (Pac-12 5) | 2 p.m. | CBS |
ReliaQuest | Dec. 31 | Tampa, Fla. | Iowa (Big Ten 3) | Auburn (SEC 3-8) | Noon | ESPN |
Music City | Dec. 30 | Nashville, Tenn. | Wisconsin (Big Ten 5) | Missouri (SEC 3-8) | 2:30 p.m. | ABC |
Independence | Dec. 28 | Shreveport, La. | Army | Arkansas State* (Pac-12 7) | 9:15 p.m. | ESPN |
Alamo | Dec. 28 | San Antonio, Texas | Kansas State (Big 12 2) | Washington St. (Pac-12 2) | 9:15 p.m. | ABC |
Military | Dec. 28 | Annapolis, Md. | East Carolina (AAC) | Louisville (ACC 8) | 5:45 p.m. | ESPN |
Arizona | Dec. 30 | Tucson, Ariz. | UNLV (MWC) | Miami-Ohio (MAC) | 4:30 p.m. | CW |
Pop-Tarts | Dec. 28 | Orlando, Fla. | Kansas (Big 12 3) | Florida State (ACC 2-4) | 3:30 p.m. | ABC |
New Mexico | Dec. 28 | Albuquerque, N.M. | Wyoming (MWC) | Rice** (ESPN) | 2:15 p.m. | ESPN |
Pinstripe | Dec. 28 | Bronx, N.Y. | Northwestern (Big Ten 6) | Georgia Tech (ACC 5-7) | Noon | ABC |
Fenway | Dec. 28 | Boston | Syracuse (ACC 9) | Tulane (AAC) | 11 a.m. | ESPN |
Vegas | Dec. 27 | Las Vegas | Arizona (Pac-12 3) | Kentucky (SEC 3-8) | 10:30 p.m. | ESPN |
Liberty | Dec. 27 | Memphis, Tenn. | Oklahoma State (Big 12 5) | Florida (SEC 3-8) | 7 p.m. | ESPN |
Birmingham | Dec. 27 | Birmingham, Ala. | SMU (ESPN) | UCF (ESPN) | 12/3:30 p.m. | ESPN |
Armed Forces | Dec. 27 | Fort Worth, Texas | West Virginia (Big 12 7) | Air Force (ESPN) | 12/3:30 p.m. | ESPN |
68 Ventures | Dec. 26 | Mobile, Ala. | Texas State (Sun Belt) | Liberty (CUSA) | 9 p.m. | ESPN |
Guaranteed Rate | Dec. 26 | Phoenix | Rutgers (Big Ten 7) | TCU (Big 12 6) | 5:45 p.m. | ESPN |
Detroit | Dec. 26 | Detroit | Minnesota** (Big Ten 8) | Central Michigan (MAC) | 2 p.m. | ESPN |
Hawaii | Dec. 24 | Honolulu | Colorado State (MWC) | FIU (CUSA) | 8 p.m. | ESPN |
Idaho Potato | Dec. 23 | Boise, Idaho | Fresno State (MWC) | Toledo (MAC) | 2:30 p.m. | ESPN |
Myrtle Beach | Dec. 23 | Myrtle Beach, S.C. | USF (ESPN) | Western Michigan (ESPN) | 11 a.m. | ESPN |
Gasparilla | Dec. 20 | Tampa, Fla. | Wake Forest (ACC) | Coastal Carolina (ESPN) | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN |
Cure | Dec. 20 | Orlando, Fla. | James Madison (ESPN) | Ohio (ESPN) | Noon | ESPN |
New Orleans | Dec. 19 | New Orleans | Appalachian State (Sun Belt) | Western Kentucky (C-USA) | 7 p.m. | ESPN2 |
LA Bowl | Dec. 18 | Inglewood, Calif. | Stanford** (Pac-12 6) | Boise State (MWC 1) | 9 p.m. | ABC |
Frisco | Dec. 17 | Frisco, Texas | Louisiana (ESPN) | Sam Houston (ESPN) | 9 p.m. | ESPN |
Boca Raton | Dec. 17 | Boca Raton, Fla. | Marshall (ESPN) | FAU (ESPN) | 5:30 p.m. | ESPN |
Camellia | Dec. 14 | Montgomery, Ala. | Georgia Southern (ESPN) | Bowling Green (ESPN) | 9 p.m. | ESPN |
Holiday | Dec. 27 | San Diego | Clemson (ACC 2-4) | Oregon State (Pac-12 4) | 8 p.m. | Fox |
* = Replacement team
** = Projected 5-7 team
(Photo: David Rosenblum / Icon Sportswire via Getty)
