Penn State preview: Very close to elite, in every area but one (2024)

In Penn State’s 2023 season opener against West Virginia, quarterback Drew Allar completed 21 of 29 passes for 325 yards, three touchdowns and no turnovers in a 38-15 win.

It was Allar’s first college start, and a giddy time in Nittany Nation.

The Mountaineers defense crowded the line of scrimmage and at times played with no deep safeties (“cover zero,’’). They dared Allar to beat them - coach Neal Brown openly acknowledged it after the game - and Allar did.

Nothing like it happened again. Penn State/Allar finished the season 99th in passing yards per attempt, the number to look at first in pass-game effectiveness.

What would that number have been, without the West Virginia game, the film of which proved revelatory for the rest of the Nittany Lions’ opponents?

There was a lot to like about the 2023 Nittany Lions and, perhaps, more to like about the 2024 edition that opens Saturday at West Virginia. Penn State is in the national top 10 in all major preseason rankings, and for the first time 12 teams will make the field for the college football playoff.

The time seems to be now for the 2022 recruiting class, one of the country’s best, including Allar, running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, defensive ends Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton, safety Kevin Winston, etc.

But unless Penn State can find a way to stretch defenses, and unless throwing the ball down the field to wide receivers isn’t a foundational part of that, the possibilities seem limited.

A closer look:

Offense: The offensive line sent two tackles and a center to the NFL. Seems like an issue, although position coach Phil Trautwein seems to have earned the benefit of the doubt.

This year’s model probably has more depth, including Warwick High grad and Wisconsin transfer Nolan Rucci, competing to start at RT.

Back to the passing game - in measuring-stick games with Ohio State and Michigan, Allar completed 28 of 64 passes for 261 yards, a feeble four yards per pass.

In the Peach Bowl, against Ole Miss with a depleted roster, Penn State didn’t complete a pass to a WR until the fourth quarter.

We’ve fully vetted the problem. What’s the solution?

In order from most to least likely:

1. New offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, from Kansas, who replaced Mike Yurcich, fired after the Michigan game and soured upon, it has become obvious, well before that.

2. Allar takes the next step, from a careful game manager (two interceptions in 389 college passes) to a cerebral gunslinger.

3. Big seasons from the RB duo of Singleton/Allen, as runner and receivers, and tight end Tyler Warren, all of whom are utterly capable, and whom Kotelnicki seems capable of unlocking.

Wild card factor: Can Kotelnicki find a decisive role for athletic backup QB/utility playmaker Beau Pribula?

4. Wide receivers emerge. The mostly likely candidate is R-junior Harrison Wallace, never fully healthy in 2023. Coach James Franklin gushes about his talent and, this offseason, his commitment and approach.

Ohio State transfer Julian Fleming is a big name, but Franklin and Co. gush only about his commitment and approach.

Defense: Was one of the best in the country last year and could be just as good, despite the loss of brilliant coordinator Manny Diaz.

The new DC is ex-Indiana HC Tom Allen, who seems overqualified.

The thing to like here is simply lots of big, talented, elite athletes: DEs Carter and Dennis-Sutton, Safety Winston, an emerging star at LB in sophom*ore Tony Rojas, transfer CBs AJ Harris and Jalen Kimber, both transfers originally recruited by Georgia.

Where there aren’t stars - at defensive tackle, perhaps - there is depth. Four DTs have started Big Ten games.

Allen should enjoy working with more talent than he’s ever had, and more than only a few, top-shelf programs can hope for.

Special teams: Yes, there’s third new coordinator, Justin Lustig, most recently of Vanderbilt, where in 2022 he won the Broyles Award, given to the nation’s top assistant coach.

The placekicker will be new, perhaps fourth-year junior Sander Sahaydak. Riley Thompson returns at punter. Don’t see huge plusses or problems there.

Singleton returns as the kickoff returner, R-sophom*ore Kaden Saunders as the punt returner. Punt returner might be the best opportunity for Manheim Township grad Anthony Ivey, now in his third year, to get on the field.

The schedule: Ranked 49th toughest in the country by Phil Steele’s College Football Preview, 14th in the newly expanded Big Ten.

Of the predicted top five teams in the conference (Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, Michigan and Iowa), the Lions face only Ohio State, at State College, game eight/week 10.

There are back-to-back trips to USC and Wisconsin in October, but with an open date in between.

The opener at West Virginia seems dicey. The Mountaineers return plenty, including fine senior QB Garrett Greene, from a nine-win team.

Two things about that one, though: 1. A noon kick should take some of the edge off, and, 2. A loss in August is easily overcome given a 12-team playoff.

Prediction: For a magazine questionnaire in late spring, I went with 9-3. I’ve since become impressed enough with the defense to go to 10-2. Losses to (of course) Ohio State and WVU or USC.

And, yes, a berth in the playoff.